{
  "generated": "2026-08-10",
  "as_of": "2026-08-10",
  "record": {
    "wins": 4,
    "losses": 3,
    "total": 7,
    "win_rate_pct": 57.1
  },
  "resolved_wins": [
    "BTC >$65K by July 31: entered 38%, profit-taken high-80s, runner FULLY PAID on breakout (trade of the month)",
    "Sept-hike leg sold at 38%: decayed, paid",
    "BTC touches $57,500 in July sold at 55%: collapsed to ~23%, paid",
    "Fed rate hike 2026 sold 48-59%: paid on cool CPI"
  ],
  "resolved_losses": [
    "CLARITY Act long from 41% and 56%, exited ~33-37% on the stated cloture rule (2026-07-29)",
    "Zero-cuts-2026 short from 78%, covered 88.75% on the stated rule (2026-08-03)",
    "December-cut long from ~18%, closed 12% (2026-08-03)"
  ],
  "exited": [
    {
      "market": "Zero Fed rate cuts in 2026",
      "entry": "78%",
      "exit": "88.75%",
      "current": "85.75%",
      "notes": "Covered 88.75% on the stated rule from a 78% short. Now 85.75% - the payroll miss cracked the consensus three points AFTER our exit. Rule was right, timing was early. Published that way in the Aug 10 issue. Not re-entering on a three-point drift."
    },
    {
      "market": "First Fed rate cut by December",
      "entry": "~18%",
      "exit": "12%",
      "current": null,
      "notes": "Closed alongside the zero-cuts short - same thesis, same failure. Realized loss."
    },
    {
      "market": "CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026",
      "entry": null,
      "exit": "~33-37%",
      "current": "20.5%",
      "notes": "Exited 33-37% on the cloture rule 2026-07-29. Now 20.5%, roughly half the 41% opening entry. Congress in recess. Re-entry only if merged text survives intact and the calendar reopens."
    }
  ],
  "open_positions": [
    {
      "market": "Fed decision in September - 25bp increase",
      "status": "no-trade",
      "current": "35.5%",
      "side": "none"
    },
    {
      "market": "Bitcoin dips to $55,000 before 2027",
      "status": "watching",
      "current": "56.5%",
      "side": "none"
    }
  ],
  "discipline_note": "2026-08-03: the book is deliberately close to flat. Three consecutive published exits were all executed on pre-stated rules rather than renegotiated. That record is itself an asset in the sale - it demonstrates the scorecard is real. | 2026-08-10: the Aug 5 dated test graded two legs of three with the unemployment leg INVERTED (fell to 4.1% instead of rising to 4.3%+). Published as 'direction right, indicator wrong, no credit claimed' rather than spun as a clean Branch A."
}