baseline Crypto

Every call we've made, graded in public, including the ones we got wrong.

Most market commentary is unfalsifiable. Predictions get made loudly and the bad ones quietly disappear. This page is the opposite: every position, the entry, the exit, and what we misjudged.

Why show the losses? Because a record without them is marketing, not a record. Everyone else's track record is bullsh*t for exactly that reason. Three of our exits were losses taken on rules we had published in advance — including covering a short that then moved our way after we left.

We would rather be checkable than impressive. If you can't verify someone's track record, you're not reading analysis. You're reading advertising.

Open positions

Resolved — wins

Resolved — losses

Exits, in detail

We do this twice a week

Bitcoin and macro analysis every Monday and Wednesday, with every call graded in the next issue. Free.

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Positions are editorial calls on public prediction markets, not investment advice, and not a solicitation to buy or sell anything. Prediction markets are thin and odds move. Generated from our own ledger on · raw data · hardware wallet risk checker